Fed meeting notes limited data during shutdown indicates cooling labor market, but no sharp deterioration

According to the Federal Reserve's October meeting notes, information obtained during the meeting showed that real GDP growth slowed in the first half of this year. Due to the impact of the federal government shutdown, information on the labor market is limited; however, existing indicators all point to a continued gradual cooling of the labor market, with no signs of any sharp deterioration. Consumer price inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains high. According to the Consumer Price Index data, the headline inflation rate, as measured by the 12-month change in the personal consumption expenditure price index, is expected to be 2.8% in September. Core PCE inflation, which excludes energy and most food price fluctuations, is also expected to be 2.8% over the same period. These figures imply that overall PCE inflation rose by 0.5 percentage points from a year ago, while core PCE inflation was flat from a year earlier.