Hunter Horsley: The four-year cycle will be broken due to reflexivity, and 2026 remains undefined
2025-11-16 08:21:06
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley wrote that the following is what I have observed happening in every four-year cycle: Popular opinion: People believe in the four-year cycle, so 2026 will be the year of Bitcoin's decline; First-order effect: So people will start selling in 2025 to avoid the market downturn year; Second-order effect: Sellers in 2025 cause 2025 to become a decline year, thus breaking the four-year cycle; Third-order effect: 2026 is still undefined, but the four-year cycle is broken. Hunter Horsley recently said that the four-year cycle is a bygone era. Since the launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, we have entered a new market structure: new players, new dynamics, new reasons for people to buy and sell. I think it's very likely that we've been through a bear market for almost 6 months and are about to come out of it. The current environment for cryptocurrency development has never been more favorable.
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