4E: Bitcoin loses another $100,000, risk sentiment takes a sharp turn

On November 14th, according to 4E observation, the US government shutdown officially ended, but the market did not rebound. The three major indexes of US stocks weakened across the board, with the Nasdaq falling by more than 2.2% and the S & P 500 falling by 1.6%. Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark again in the general decline of risk assets, reaching a minimum of about $98,000, a new low since May and the third time this month that it lost key integer digits. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the whole network has exploded to $550 million, of which more than 423 million dollars, and BTC and ETH have exploded to $168 million and $144 million respectively.
The market generally believes that this round of decline was triggered by the sharp drop in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, and the probability of interest rate cuts in December fell from 85% last week to close to "50/50". At the same time, the AI bubble controversy has hit technology stocks, while the currency market and US stocks are highly interconnected, superimposed in October MEME coin plunge weakened the profit-making effect, resulting in continued pressure on Bitcoin.
At the macro level, Luxembourg's sovereign wealth fund FSIL confirmed that it will allocate 1% of its portfolio to bitcoin, and the finance minister stressed that bitcoin is becoming part of Europe's competitive strategy.
4E comments: The short-term market is in the stage of "strong volatility + weak expectations", and macro pressure and sentiment jointly suppress the trend of Bitcoin. But from the DEX active level to the entry of sovereign funds, long-term funds are still being deployed, and the bear market signal has not been fully confirmed.