Alliance DAO: The top of the crypto 4-year cycle looms, and the US stock AI bubble will dominate the rise and fall

Alliance DAO co-founder QwQiao recently posted that while macro factors such as the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE), the US Treasury's general account (TGA) rebuilding, and interest rate cuts point to a market rally, it's all over intuitively. QwQiao's description of crypto as a self-fulfilling asset class, emphasizing the inevitability of four-year cycle predictions, has left the market facing a crossroads of frustration. As a long-term optimist, he has been uneasy about the crypto market since mid-September and has observed that most smart traders and long-term investors have turned bearish.
Turning to US stocks, QwQiao sees artificial intelligence (AI) as the only factor that dominates the cycle, far outpacing liquidity indicators and technical signals. He warns that if the AI bubble bursts, the entire market will crash; otherwise, if AI-related stocks continue to rise, the bears will be all wrong. He compares NVIDIA (NVDA) to Bitcoin in crypto, noting that when AI stocks (especially NVIDIA) rise, money flows out of other assets such as crypto, causing crypto to to fall, and vice versa, forming a binary pattern of AI stocks vs everything.
In the sub-sector, QwQiao is optimistic about the growth momentum of stablecoin startups, believing that it far exceeds the speed of AI startups, mainly due to the scarcity of competition in the stablecoin market, and the AI vertical has been crowded with more than 50 players. This year, his return on investment in US stocks is significantly higher than that of crypto, and he has not ventured into high-growth but inefficient AI stocks, preferring high-quality enterprises at reasonable prices.