The marginal supply and demand of iron ore itself continues to improve, and the market outlook may maintain a loose pattern

Gold Ten Futures May 10 News, < br > 1. < b > Valuation : Absolute valuation neutral high, relative valuation neutral high, neutral basis. From the absolute price point of view, iron ore prices are still at a neutral high level in the past 7 years; from the variety ratio point of view, the snail ore ratio is at a low level in the past 8 years; from the basis point of view, the recent main contract basis of iron ore 09 has not changed much, and the overall is at a neutral level in the past 7 years. < br > 2. < b > Drive : its own marginal improvement, but the end point support weakened. From a fundamental perspective, the recent profits of steel mills are still acceptable. The steel mills have been suspended for maintenance and maintenance in the early stage, and the output of molten iron has increased for 6 consecutive weeks. The rigid demand for iron ore has increased steadily. Under the background of stable iron ore shipments, port inventories have changed from increase to decrease, and the marginal supply and demand of iron ore itself has continued to improve. < br > 3. In the medium term, the second quarter is the peak season for iron ore shipments. Under the background of rising costs, steel mills' profits may contract again. Based on the pressure of steel mills' profits and finished materials inventories, the incremental space for molten iron output may be limited, and the iron ore is looser or maintained.