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Dalio: The Federal Reserve is stimulating bubbles and monetizing government debt

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2025-11-06 08:29:34
Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Fund, wrote that the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing in the past was "a stimulus to the depression", and the current quantitative easing is "a stimulus to the bubble". When the supply of U.S. Treasuries exceeds demand, and the Federal Reserve is printing money and buying bonds, while the Treasury is shortening the maturity of the debt it sells to make up for the lack of demand for long-term bonds, these are the dynamics of the late stages of the classic "Great Debt Cycle".
Due to the fact that the fiscal side of US government policy is now highly stimulative (due to the large existing outstanding debt and large deficits, and financed through large-scale Treasury issuance, especially over relatively short maturities), QE will effectively monetize government debt rather than simply re-inject liquidity into the private system.
That's what's different about what's happening right now, in a way that seems to make it more dangerous and more inflationary. It looks like a bold and dangerous "big bet" on growth, especially from artificial intelligence, financed through a very liberal easing of fiscal policy, monetary policy and regulatory policy. We will have to monitor it closely to deal with it properly. (Golden Ten)
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