Goldman Sachs: Even if the US Supreme Court rules that Trump's tariffs are illegal, the impact on the overall trade situation will be limited

Goldman Sachs pointed out that during oral arguments, a number of US Supreme Court justices challenged Trump's exercise of powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, indicating that the Supreme Court is increasingly likely to rule that the government's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs is unconstitutional. Forecast markets now believe the chances of the Supreme Court upholding the tariffs have dropped by about 10 percentage points. A final ruling is expected between December 2025 and January 2026. If the Supreme Court rejects the legality of the tariffs, it could take months for the government to refund about $115 billion to $145 billion in tariffs already imposed by then. But the government is likely to turn to other legal grounds to reimpose similar tariffs, meaning the overall trade impact will remain limited. Any tariff cuts are likely to apply only to smaller trading partners and are not expected to make significant changes to major economies such as the European Union. However, the treatment of tax rebates and temporary tariff vacancies may cause short-term market volatility. (Jin Ten)