US Treasury estimates fourth-quarter borrowing of $569 billion, down $21 billion from July estimate

On November 4th, the US Treasury released its fourth-quarter financing estimate. It expects to borrow $569 billion in the fourth quarter, a decrease of $21 billion from the July estimate, mainly due to the higher cash balance at the beginning of the quarter, partially offset by the lower expected net cash flow. Excluding the higher-than-expected cash balance at the beginning of the quarter, the borrowing estimate for the quarter is $20 billion higher than the data released in July. Assuming a cash balance of $850 billion at the end of March next year, the Treasury expects to raise $578 billion in privately held net marketable bonds in the January-March quarter of 2026.