4E: Bitcoin "will fall after halving" law or failure; European Union plans to expand crypto regulation

On November 3rd, according to 4E's observation, the traditional volatility pattern after the bitcoin halving may be invalidating. The data shows that the current bitcoin volatility is below 2%, a record low, and in the third halving period of 2020, the volatility rate once exceeded 5%. Koji Maeda, a senior executive at the Japanese crypto company BACKSEAT, pointed out that with the strengthening of market liquidity and the improvement of institutional participation, the impact of individual investors' short-term behavior on prices has weakened, and the so-called "post-halving correction" rule of thumb may no longer apply.
In the European Union, the European Union Commission is planning to expand central supervision of stock and crypto exchanges. The new proposal would give the European Securities and Markets Authority more powers to cover the "most important cross-border entities" in order to promote the construction of a "capital markets union" and reduce regulatory fragmentation. The relevant plan is expected to be formally proposed in December.
On the other hand, Strategy Chairperson Michael Saylor said that the company has no plans to acquire other bitcoin asset reserve companies, saying that such mergers and acquisitions are usually subject to high uncertainty and long cycles.
In terms of investment institutions, the latest top 15 positions in Cathie Wood's ARKK ETF show that crypto-related companies such as Coinbase (5.8%) and Circle (2.55%) are highly weighted, indicating their continued bets in the new round of technology and digital asset cycles.
4E Comments: Bitcoin has entered the historically low range of volatility, which may mean that the market structure has shifted from speculation-led to stable capital. If the European Union's regulatory integration and institutional allocation trends advance simultaneously, crypto assets may gradually enter the "low-wave stable bull" stage.