CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin's four-year cycle may be over

On November 3rd, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju shared a series of on-chain data on Bitcoin and made the following main analysis points:
1. The whale's unrealised profits are not extremely high. That could mean one of two things: "The hype is not there yet - we are nowhere near the euphoria." Or "This time it's different - the market is too big for exorbitant margins."
2. Bitcoin hashrate continues to hit new highs (about 5.96 million ASIC miners online). Listed mining companies are expanding, not downsizing, which is a clear long-term bullish signal.
3. The current demand is mainly driven by ETFs and MicroStrategy, but recent buying in both channels has slowed down. If these two channels resume growth, market momentum may return.
4. The short-term giant whales (mainly ETFs) of the past 6 months are close to break-even. The long-term giant whales have gained about 53%. In the past, the market showed clear four-year cyclical fluctuations, with accumulation and distribution between retail investors and giant whale investors. It is now harder to predict where and on what scale new liquidity will flow in, making it unlikely that Bitcoin will follow the same cyclical pattern again.
5. The average cost of a bitcoin wallet is $55,900, which means that the average holder makes a profit of about 93%. The realized market cap continues to rise (adding $8 billion this week), indicating that on-chain inflows remain strong. The price increase is not due to selling pressure, but due to weak demand.