Morgan Stanley: Gold could rise to $4,500 by mid-2026

On October 31st, Morgan Stanley said on Friday that gold prices are expected to rise to $4,500 an ounce in mid-2026 (previously expected to reach $4,500 in the second half of 2026) due to strong physical demand from ETFs and central banks, as well as the still uncertain economic outlook. "Recent gold price movements have moved it into'overbought 'territory on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, but the recent pullback has brought it back to healthier levels, potentially clearing market positions," Morgan Stanley said in a note. The bank expects gold ETF buying to continue as interest rates fall, while central banks will also continue to buy gold, albeit at a slower pace, while jewellery demand stabilizes. However, Morgan Stanley also cautioned that downside risks remain, including potential price volatility that could prompt investors to switch to other asset classes, or central banks deciding to reduce their gold reserves.