Analysis: The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and December
2025-10-26 23:48:32
According to the China Gold Research Report, the US CPI rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in September, rising to 3.0% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 0.2% quarter-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, lower than market expectations. From a sub-item perspective, the drag on rent and used car prices is more obvious, reflecting the weakening of related demand. It is speculated that this is related to Trump's policy of restricting and deporting immigrants. Prices of goods affected by tariffs have been mixed, but the speed and magnitude of their price increases are lower than we previously expected. This also reflects the weak demand at the end point, and it is difficult for companies to pass on the cost of tariffs to consumers. Service inflation remains firm. Overall, this inflation data is relatively mild, supporting the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates. Given the downside risks to the labor market, we expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and December.
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