IMF increases global growth forecast for 2025, saying Trump's trade war could weigh on global output
2025-10-14 13:04:33
On October 14, the international monetary fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 on Tuesday due to the milder-than-expected impact of tariff shocks and financial conditions, but warned that Trump's trade war could significantly weigh on global output. The IMF said in its World Economic Outlook that recent trade deals reached by the United States with some major economies have avoided the toughest tariff measures threatened by Trump, prompting the IMF to raise its growth forecast for the second time since April. It now expects real global GDP to grow by 3.2% in 2025, up from 3.0% forecast in July; global growth is expected to be 3.1% in 2026, the same as in July. US GDP is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2025, up slightly from 1.9% in July, and 2.1% in 2026, also slightly higher, but significantly lower than 2.8% in 2024. The IMF said US growth benefited from lower-than-expected tariffs, a fiscal boost from Republican tax reform, loose financial conditions and an artificial intelligence investment boom.
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