4E: Institutions continue to increase their holdings, and the bitcoin market may enter a new cycle

On October 13th, according to 4E observation, MARA Holdings bought another 400 BTC through FalconX two hours ago, with a transaction amount of about 46.31 million dollars. At present, the cumulative position reaches 52,850 BTC, with a total value of about 6.12 billion dollars at the current price. At the same time, Strategy founder Michael Saylor released Bitcoin Tracker information again, and the market expects his company to disclose a new round of holdings this week.
At the macro level, the risk of a US government shutdown remains as high as 96%, but the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October (probability 98.3%). Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell and a number of governors will make intensive speeches this week, and the delay in the release of economic data is exacerbating market expectations for policy easing.
In precious metals, spot gold prices briefly rose to $4,060 an ounce, another all-time high. Meanwhile, Glassnode data shows that crypto market funding rates have fallen to their lowest level since the 2022 bear market, indicating that leverage has been systematically cleaned up and market volatility has dropped significantly.
Market opinion is divided: trader Alex Becker pointed out that this plunge may mark the early stage of the bull market; Jan3 founder Samson Mow also believes that Bitcoin is about to start a new round of upward cycle.
In addition, Forbes reports that US President Donald Trump, or one of the largest individual Bitcoin investors in the United States, indirectly holds around $870 million in BTC through his holding company TMTG.
4E reminds investors that deleveraging and institutional overweight signals are strengthening, bitcoin may be at the beginning of a new cycle after a mid-term adjustment, and macro and political events may become key catalysts for the market.