CITIC Futures: Limited short-term impact of the deadlock in negotiations between BHP and Chinese miners

Gold Ten Futures Special Contributor CITIC Futures Comments: Bloomberg today announced that due to the impasse in negotiations, the negotiations between BHP Billiton (BHP) and Chinese iron ore traders may continue for several months, or even extend to the beginning of 2026. At present, BHP has sold most of the iron ore delivered in November and December, so its shipments to China are almost unaffected. The impact of China's suspension of procurement may not gradually become apparent until BHP starts selling ore delivered in January next year. According to Mysteel statistics, the total shipment volume of BHP mines (calculated by 100% equity) in 2024 is about 290 million tons, of which about 250 million tons will be sent to China, accounting for about 86% of its total shipment volume and 19% of the total iron ore arrivals at Port 47 in China. As of October 3, 2025, BHP mines (based on 100% equity) have shipped 189 million tons to China, a decrease of 3.15 million tons year-on-year. < b > If the Bloomberg report is true, the impact on BHP shipments in the short term is expected to be small and will remain at a level similar to the same period last year. The impact of this news on the disk price is also limited. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the progress of the negotiations between the two parties in the future .