Wall Street institutions have made the following analysis views on the duration of the US government shutdown:
Morgan Stanley: Treasury options suggest that the U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, will last at least 10 days and as long as 29 days.
Goldman Sachs: The U.S. government shutdown is unlikely to extend beyond military payday on October 15. If the shutdown continues by then, active duty military personnel will not be paid, which was never allowed to happen.
According to data from prediction platform Polymarket, the market believes that the probability of the US government shutdown ending after October 15 is as high as 85%; the probability that the US Congress will pass a spending bill by the end of October is 76%. (Jin Ten)
Institutions generally predict that the US government shutdown will last at least 10 days, with the 15th being a key node
2025-10-09 03:46:37
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