Fed meeting notes: Staff continue to see risks to inflation forecasts skewed to the upside

The Fed meeting notes note that staff projections for inflation are only slightly adjusted from those made at the July meeting. Tariff increases are still expected to push inflation higher this year and bring further upward pressure in 2026. Inflation is expected to decline in 2026, reaching 2% in 2027 and remaining at that level in 2028. Staff continue to see uncertainty in forecasts as remaining high, primarily due to uncertainty about changes in economic policy, including trade, immigration, fiscal spending and regulation, and the economic impact of those policy changes. Risks to employment and labor markets are slightly skewed to the downside, due to recent signs of labor market weakness against a background of moderate real GDP growth. Staff continue to see risks in inflation forecasts as skewed to the upside, as this year's rise in inflation is likely to be more persistent than the baseline forecast assumes.