Zoltan Pozsar: The global economy is moving towards decentralization, and gold remains the first choice for safe-haven assets

On October 1, 2025, at the Token 2049 event, Zoltan Pozsar, a well-known analyst, pointed out that the global economic system is accelerating towards decentralization. He mentioned that the world is splitting into two camps: "Western Federation" and "Eastern Federation". The US policy has caused its economic role to be reversed, from the traditional "consumption center" to the "production center". This process has shaken the old economic order dominated by the US dollar.
Talking about the main risk points of the current economy, Pozsar said that Europe is in short-term difficulties due to insufficient investment in infrastructure and defense, and is deeply affected by the US interest rate policy; Japan and South Korea are hit by the US high interest rates and trade bundling strategy, the economic operation is difficult, and the pressure on currency and asset markets has doubled; emerging markets have been plagued by high inflation and devaluation of their own currencies for a long time, and at the same time face the risk of capital outflow. In this context, although the US dollar can be supported in the short term due to the sharing of costs by allies and the expansion of the use of stablecoins, its status may be sha
In terms of investment advice, Pozsar stressed that gold is still the first choice for safe-haven assets, and the market's crisis of confidence in fiat currencies has intensified, which has promoted the strong price of gold. He also pointed out that although bitcoin has certain savings substitution attributes, its price volatility is severe and it is highly influenced by regulation, making it difficult to become a mainstream savings tool. The short-term demand for US Treasury bonds is stable due to policy support, and long-term needs to be vigilant against the risks caused by the decline in the willingness of allies to buy.