On October 1, 2025, at the Token 2049 event, Arthur Hayes pointed out that the current global economy is in deep debt distress. Since 1970, the global debt-to-GDP ratio has soared from 110% to 360%. In particular, the United States needs to roll over nearly 8 trillion US dollars in bonds by 2026. It is facing huge debt repayment pressure, which is likely to be solved by printing money, which will trigger a flood of fiat currency liquidity. At the same time, the AI boom is on the rise. Although the price-to-earnings ratio of related stocks such as NVIDIA is as high as 100 times, and the signs of bubbles are obvious, the development of AI has huge demand for computing power and data storage.
In this context, Arthur Hayes advises investors to: First, avoid European assets, the European economic landscape is volatile, French capital outflows are serious, fiscal and political gridlock, the Eurozone is facing the risk of disintegration due to the French crisis, European stocks have long underperformed the MSCI World Index, and bonds, stocks and other assets have poor resilience to risks.
Second, by embracing hard assets such as gold and bitcoin, the risk of global liquidity easing and currency depreciation has intensified. Gold and bitcoin have anti-inflation and decentralized properties, making them safe havens.
Arthur Hayes: The global economy is mired in debt, actively embracing gold and bitcoin
2025-10-01 03:17:09
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