BNP Paribas: The trend of the dollar may deviate from the historical trend
2025-09-17 12:27:19
In a note, strategists at BNP Paribas said the dollar could deviate from historical trends if the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut on Wednesday. Historically, the dollar tends to rise in the months following the first rate cut without a recession, supported by inflows into US equities, while in a recession, the dollar usually benefits from inflows of safe-haven funds. However, this time the situation may be different: if the possibility of a recession increases, the dollar may instead fall - because the current trading logic of the dollar is more in line with the volatility of risky assets.
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