Moody's: The probability of a US recession in the next 12 months is 48%, and the economy is at a critical point
2025-09-15 02:26:28
According to Finbold, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said the agency's latest leading indicator for machine learning showed a 48% probability of a U.S. recession in the coming year as of August. He said that while the reading is below the 50% threshold, historical experience has shown that when the probability approaches/breaks out of the mid-40% range, it tends to coincide with or follow a recession. Zandi also mentioned that the employment slowdown and consecutive downward revisions have put the economy at a tipping point.
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