The "big picture has been set" policy path for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is full of suspense

With a series of employment and inflation data coming out one after another, the "puzzle" of interest rate cut expectations has been pieced together - the market is fully priced that the Federal Reserve will resume interest rate cuts this week. The current focus of the market has shifted to the magnitude and rhythm of interest rate cuts. Analysts generally believe that the Federal Reserve's 25 basis points interest rate cut this week is a high probability event, but it does not rule out the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut. In the context of the "suspense" of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy pace, the trend of global asset classes will also be different depending on the specific situation. Yang Zirong, an associate researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the stock market will benefit from the boost of monetary easing policies in the short term, and at the exchange rate level, the US dollar index has downward momentum. However, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut are relatively sufficient, and the key lies in whether there will be new changes in the rate cut, policy stance and market expectations for its independence. (Shanghai Securities Report)