Analysts: It has become a consensus that the European Central Bank will not cut interest rates, and the market is focusing on whether the easing cycle is over

The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave its key interest rate unchanged at its September monetary policy meeting. The key question now, however, is whether the ECB will explicitly mention the end of its rate-cutting cycle on Thursday. "The swap market is pricing in a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut over the next 12 months," BBH's analysts noted. By contrast, most economists polled by Reuters expect the ECB to have ended its rate cuts. Moreover, industry experts and analysts have suggested that ECB President Christine Lagarde and some of her colleagues have set a high bar for future rate cuts, and that only a worsening economic growth outlook and continued deflationary trends are likely to persuade the ECB to resume easing. "The press conference will focus on economic resilience and reducing trade uncertainty," analysts at TD Securities said in anticipation of the ECB's policy statement. "Asked about risks, Lagarde is likely to insist that the committee is well placed, but will not explicitly hint at future rate cuts."