Market analysis: The Federal Reserve may be disappointed by the expected rate cut in 2026
2025-09-09 13:53:38
The interest rate market is pricing in a series of long-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting this month, with the Fed's target range for interest rates falling below 3% by the end of 2026. According to Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro, this expected path of sharp rate cuts is unlikely to be reflected in the Fed's September dot plot, putting the Fed's trajectory in sharp contrast to market expectations. "With the FOMC meeting coming up, it's hard to see how the Fed will meet expectations," Dutta wrote. For the September dot plot to match market forecasts, eight Fed officials would have to cut their 2026 dot plot rates to 3% or less.
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