US job growth in the year to March is likely to be far less robust than current government data suggest, underlining that the US labour market was already in a slowdown even before the summer hiring slowdown. Economists at Wells Fargo, Allied and Panson Macro expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to release a revised annual benchmark for non-farm payrolls on Tuesday showing employment in March was nearly 800,000 fewer than current estimates, or about 67,000 a month on average.
Nomura, Bank of America and Royal Bank of Canada said the number of downgrades could even be close to 1 million. While the data is slightly outdated, a significant downward revision would show much less momentum in the labor market last year and strengthen expectations for a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A second consecutive year of sharp revisions to the jobs data is also likely to draw the ire of President Donald Trump, who has criticized the accuracy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
The US jobs data could be revised sharply again, which could stimulate interest rate-cutting bets
2025-09-08 10:25:27
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