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Barclays: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates continuously this year, and the European Central Bank will stay put this week

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2025-09-08 01:57:33
Barclays economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, October and December as the US jobs report points to increased downside risks in the labour market, even if data due this week could show an acceleration in consumer inflation. However, they ruled out the possibility of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve. "We believe that a 50 basis point rate cut is unlikely and the market does price it as such, and the forthcoming CPI and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) have limited impact on this expectation," the report said. Economists still expect another rate cut in March and June 2026, bringing the final rate down to 3.00% -3.25%. In contrast, Barclays expects the European Central Bank to remain unchanged this week, while fiscal pressures will persist, particularly in France and the United Kingdom.
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