Coal char: negative feedback logic dominates, focusing on supply-side changes

Gold ten futures September 4th news, the short-term negative feedback logic continues, steel demand is weak, high supply has not changed, steel mills continue to transmit pressure to the raw material end. Later can pay attention to: first, macro policy trends, September-December US interest rate cuts and China's fiscal policy if positive, commodity upside space will open; second is the end point of steel demand can exceed expectations, if exports remain resilient or break the negative feedback cycle. In the long run, the structural adjustment of the black industry chain is advancing. With the introduction of a series of "anti-involution" policies at the national level, especially for the black industry chain cash market norms, the industry will gradually change from "price war" to "value war". Under the combined effect of policy blessing and cost structure changes, the black industry chain is expected to usher in a structural recovery, but this process will take time, and the negative feedback logic will continue in the short term. Changes in the coal supply side will become a key variable to break the negative feedback, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of changes in the coal supply side.