4E: Weak non-farm expectations spark interest rate cut speculation, WLFI boosts Trump family wealth surge

September 2nd news, according to 4E observation, analyst Lee Hardman said that if the US non-farm payroll data is much weaker than expected this Friday, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, and the dollar will be under pressure. At present, the market is generally betting on 25 basis points, but by September next year, the cumulative interest rate cut may exceed 100 basis points. CICC calculates that the interest rate of the US ten-year Treasury bond may rise to 4.8% this year. In the future, QE or deregulation may passively lower long-end interest rates, and the inflation center will still rise.
In terms of legislation, the U.S. Senate plans to consider the Responsible Financial Innovation Act of 2025 by the end of September, which would clarify the SEC's role in the crypto market or become a key step in reshaping the regulatory landscape.
In terms of capital flow, South Korean investors sold $657 million Tesla stock sharply in August and turned to high-volatility assets such as Ethereum treasury Bitmine Immersion (BMNR), with a net inflow of $253 million. According to Bank of America data, the current institutional crypto allocation is only 0.3%, about one-seventh of gold allocation.
In terms of the token sector, the first day of WLFI's launch caused the Trump family's paper wealth to surge by about $5 billion. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, said that the probability of XRP spot ETF being approved in 2025 is close to 100%, and the market expectations are high.
4E reminds investors that macro and regulatory changes are affecting the market in combination, institutional capital allocation remains low, narrative-driven and policy expectations may amplify volatility, and investors need to remain cautious.