Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin said in response to recent discussions on prediction markets that in coin voting, if you make a wrong bet, there is no penalty, the only risk is the very small chance that you personally might push the outcome to the edge. In prediction markets, if you make a wrong judgment, you will lose money, and if you bet big, you will lose a lot of money.
I personally feel that the probabilities given by prediction markets are usually more accurate than my judgments shaped by the (professional or social) media climate. They actually help me stay rational and not overestimate the importance of things (but also allow me to realise the importance of things when they really matter).
Vitalik: The probabilities given by prediction markets are usually more accurate than the judgments formed by media influence
2025-08-27 02:13:53
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