Analysts looking ahead to Powell's speech: not yet fully grasp the data, or remain cautious

Wall Street's eyes were focused on Friday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell, who may have remained cautiously silent after a string of strong inflation data. "Powell is in a very tricky position," said Jon Hilsenrath, a senior adviser at StoneX. "He may concede that a September rate cut looks likely, but he won't give a timeline for a series of rate cuts because the Fed's inflation task is not yet complete." Mr. Powell's speech comes as the Fed does not yet have all the data it needs to determine the direction of interest rates, and decisions will rely heavily on August employment data and CPI readings released next month.
"Jackson Hole may not matter," Andrew Tyler, head of global market intelligence at JPMorgan, wrote in a report on Wednesday. Patrick Fruzzetti, portfolio manager at Rose Advisors, also said: "Powell has done this balancing act before. I don't think he will signal an aggressive rate cut, nor will he be any more hawkish than he is now. Powell may signal that policymakers are still prioritizing inflation over job growth for now."