The Fed meeting notes that there is still considerable uncertainty about the effects of tariffs

In July meeting notes, the Fed noted that with regard to the outlook for inflation, participants generally expected inflation to rise in the near term. They argued that there was still considerable uncertainty about the timing, magnitude and durability of the impact of tariff increases this year. In terms of timing, many participants noted that it may take some time for the full impact of higher tariffs to be reflected in the prices of consumer goods and services. They cited several factors that could contribute to this lag, including stockpiling in response to tariff increases, the slow transmission of input cost increases to final prices of goods and services, the gradual renewal of contract prices, the maintenance of business-Customer relationships, issues related to tariff collection, and ongoing trade negotiations.