The Fed meeting notes that commodity prices are expected to rise less than previously expected

The Fed's July meeting notes noted that staff forecasts for real GDP growth from this year to 2027 were similar to those made at the June meeting, reflecting the offsetting effect of a number of outlook revisions. Staff expect the cost of imports, including tariffs, to rise less and later than previously forecast, and financial conditions are expected to provide slightly stronger support for output growth. However, these positive effects on the economic outlook were offset by weaker-than-expected spending data and a lower-than-assumed boost to population growth from net migration. Workers still expect the labor market to weaken, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise above the natural rate estimated by workers around the end of this year and remain above the natural rate until 2027.