TD Securities: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut interest rates again in October and November
2025-08-20 13:00:36
Strategists at TD Securities said the latest rate cut itself was within market expectations and surprised markets by hinting at further cuts ahead. "We will not ignore this signal," wrote Prashant Newnaha, noting that two members voted for a 50 basis point cut and that the dovish turn came at a time when the acting governor still saw a 50/50 chance of inflation rising above 3 per cent this year. The RBNZ's confidence that there is spare capacity in the New Zealand economy may have been strengthened by the fact that labour market data were significantly lower than expected in May. Even at the risk of rising inflation, the Fed appears firmly on course for further rate cuts. TD Securities adjusted its forecast as a result and now expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rates by 25 basis points each in October and November, with the end point rate reaching 2.50%.
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