Investors have been piling into swaps, options and outright long trades for weeks, betting that slowing inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to cut borrowing costs in the coming months. That view was tentatively validated on Tuesday when short-term Treasury yields fell in response to July inflation data, while swap traders pushed the probability of a September cut to 90 per cent.
More strikingly, bets on the Fed cutting rates by more than 25 basis points in September are also heating up. Traders added about $2 million to positions tied to the secured overnight funding rate (SOFR), which would profit from a larger-than-expected rate cut.
"Today's [Tuesday's] inflation data, while slightly stronger than in previous months, is well below the level many are concerned about," Rick Rieder, BlackRock's global chief investment officer for fixed income, said in a research note. "So we expect the Fed to initiate a rate cut in September, and there is even a reasonable basis for a 50 basis point cut."
In addition, Goldman's trading and research team has previously said that the market underestimated the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September.
BlackRock Research: The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in September, and there is even a reasonable basis for cutting interest rates by 50 basis points
2025-08-12 23:43:58
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贝莱德研报：预计美联储将在9月启动降息，甚至存在降息50个基点的合理依据
