Goldman Sachs: US consumers may bear 67% of the cost of tariffs
2025-08-11 03:36:20
US businesses have so far shouldered most of the cost of Trump's tariffs, but the burden will increasingly shift to consumers, according to research from Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs analysts, including Jan Hatzius, wrote in a note that US consumers have shouldered about 22% of the cost of tariffs as of June, but their share will rise to 67% if the latest tariffs follow the previous pattern of taxation. US businesses have shouldered about 64% of the cost of tariffs so far, but their share will fall below 10% in the future. Foreign exporters have shouldered about 14% of the cost of tariffs as of June, and their share could rise to 25% in the future. All in all, US inflation will rise for the rest of the year. Goldman Sachs forecasts that core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) will grow 3.2% year-on-year in December, based on an assumption of 2.4% underlying inflation excluding the impact of tariffs. (Jin Ten)
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