If policies related to overproduction verification continue to tighten, it will have an upward impact on coking coal

Gold Ten Futures Special CITIC Futures Comments: Recently, according to information from platforms such as Steel Union and Fenwei, the verification of coal mine overproduction in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other regions is gradually advancing, with the aim of resolving coal overcapacity. At present, the actual impact of the overproduction verification being carried out in the main production areas is limited, and it is estimated that the overproduction situation in the first half of the year is not serious, but the continued overproduction verification will undoubtedly drag down the progress of coal mine resumption. Superimposed on the possible impact of production restrictions before the military parade, it is difficult for domestic coking coal production to increase significantly in the short term. Overall, rumors of coking coal supply continue to be disturbed, supply expectations are poor, and market sentiment has been boosted again. Looking ahead to the market outlook, the resumption of production of coal mines in the origin is relatively slow, supported by the downstream high-speed rail water, the short-term fundamentals remain healthy, and the market pays high attention to the verification of coal mine overproduction. If the follow-up relevant policies continue to tighten, it will drive up the price of the disk.