HTX DeepThink: The Federal Reserve's failure to release an easing schedule has triggered a short shock in the market

On August 5th, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) pointed out that the July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates at 5.25% -5.50%, without providing any guidance on future interest rate cuts, triggering market concerns about "high interest rates for longer". The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield immediately rose to 4.24%, the U.S. dollar index returned to above 100, gold fell below $3,270, bitcoin fell back to the 116,000 dollar range in the short term, and the active level on the chain fell synchronously.
However, the July non-farm payrolls report released three days later unexpectedly "fell off a cliff": only 73,000 jobs were added, less than expected 180,000, and the employment data for May-June was revised down by about 90%. The reality of "systemic overvaluation" in the labor market prompted a rapid reassessment of the Fed's policy path. The probability of CME FedWatch rate cuts soared from 38% to 82%, and the bet on two rate cuts during the year rose to 64%. The 10-year yield then fell below 4.10%, gold rallied $40 during the day, and bitcoin fell again to around $112,000 after a brief rally.
Despite the sharp fluctuations in the market caused by the sudden cooling of short-term employment data, the structural data such as household debt ratio, credit card default rate and business loans show that the United States is still in a phase of "slowing growth" rather than a systemic recession. Such a combination of "employment decline + inflation easing" may herald an imminent shift from monetary policy to loosening, and risky assets are in a window period where high volatility and liquidity games coexist.
Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation of offers or recommendations for any investment product.