Barclays: European Central Bank may choose to cut interest rates in December
2025-08-04 04:55:11
Barclays currently sees a possibility that the European Central Bank will opt for a rate cut in December instead of the September cut previously forecast. The revision takes into account the softness in economic activity in the second half of the year, caused by the continued drag from trade policy and the impact of earlier earlier U.S. imports, said Mariano Sinar, an economist at the bank. Barclays expects that by December, signals about trade headwinds will be clearer and concerns about supply chain disruptions affecting inflation will diminish. In addition, confidence that the fiscal plan for 2026 will not rekindle inflationary pressures may increase, which will support a 25 basis point rate cut. Barclays expects the ECB's end point deposit rate to remain at 1.75% through 2026. (Golden Ten)
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