The US non-farm payroll data will be released tonight, and the results will have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision

The US jobs report for July, due at 8.30pm Beijing time on Friday, is expected to show 110,000 new jobs, down sharply from 147,000 in June; the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.2 per cent from 4.1 per cent; and average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3 per cent, up from 0.2 per cent in June. If accurate, this would reinforce the view that the labour market is slowing, although it would not necessarily require a response from the Federal Reserve.
At the rate meeting earlier this week, Powell gave no guidance on the September interest rate decision, noting that there is a lot of data to be released before then, and Friday's July non-farm payroll report will be a piece of the puzzle that will help influence the Federal Reserve's September interest rate cut expectations. The analysis pointed out that if the non-farm payroll data is lower than 100,000 and the unemployment rate rises, it may suggest a weakening of the labor market, weigh on the Federal Reserve's rekindled hawkish expectations, and put pressure on the dollar, which will help gold prices rebound. However, if the non-farm payroll data unexpectedly exceeds 150,000, the strength of the dollar may continue, as the strong US employment data may rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates twice this year. (Golden Ten)