China Merchants Macro: As long as the inflation gap is higher than the employment gap, the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to cut interest rates
2025-07-30 23:53:12
According to the China Merchants Macro Research Report, Powell is still worried about the risk of stagflation, which means that as long as the inflation gap is higher than the employment gap, it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In June, the Federal Reserve gave a forward-looking judgment on the risk of stagflation. In July, this tone continued. Powell's concern about "inflation" was significantly higher than his concern about "stagnation". The most important statement was that "inflation is currently higher than the target level and employment is at the target level, so policy should remain moderately restrictive". What Powell needs to confirm is that the tariff inflation shock is fully reflected.
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