Goldman Sachs: The Trump administration is expected to raise the base tariff rate to 15%.
2025-07-23 05:59:27
David Mericle, chief US economist at Goldman Sachs, expects the US base "reciprocal" tariff rate to rise from 10 per cent to 15 per cent, with duties on copper and key minerals reaching 50 per cent - a move that could exacerbate inflationary pressures and damp economic growth. To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate an "early look" at the impact of import tariffs, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasts for US inflation and GDP growth in parallel. Goldman cut its core inflation forecast from 3.4 per cent to 3.3 per cent in 2025, 2.6 per cent to 2.7 per cent in 2026 and 2.0 per cent to 2.4 per cent in 2027. Mericle said the tariffs were expected to push core prices up by a cumulative 1.7 per cent over two to three years. He added that tariffs would reduce GDP growth by 1 percentage point this year, 0.4 percentage points in 2026 and 0.3 percentage points in 2027. Goldman Sachs accordingly lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1%. (Jin Ten)
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