QCP Capital: Ethereum performance drives the start of the counterfeit products season, institutions are leading the rise

QCP Capital said in the weekly market report released on July 21 that the seasonal indicators of multiple counterfeit products have exceeded 50, reaching the highest level since December last year, and the amount of unpositioned squaring of ETH perpetual contracts has jumped from $18 billion to $28 billion in a week, marking that the counterfeit products season may have officially started.
QCP pointed out that the leaders of this cycle are institutional investors. Benefiting from the clarification of the stablecoin regulatory framework brought about by the implementation of the GENIUS Act, corporate finance has begun to increase its holdings of L1 public chain tokens such as ETH, SOL, XRP and ADA, similar to the role of BTC in the financial allocation of Strategy and Metaplanet.
If ETH receives SEC approval to pledge its spot ETF in the coming months, it may attract funds from BTC ETF to ETH, further unlocking the yield potential. In fact, the daily net inflow of ETH spot ETF has exceeded BTC for two consecutive days last week, indicating a surge in institutional interest in ETH, and BlackRock is also confident in its pledge ETH ETF.
In addition, call spread trading in the ETH options market was active, and call spread positions expiring in September and December were established in large quantities, highlighting the market's optimism for the fourth quarter.
The current BTC market dominance rate has fallen from 64% to 60%, and the ETH market share has risen from 9.7% to 11.6%. If the trend continues, a new round of counterfeit products season may have begun. QCP said it will continue to pay attention to relevant signals and update the trend as soon as possible.