Analysis: Fed's June meeting notes divergent inflation assessments

Institutional analysis pointed out that the Federal Reserve's June meeting notes reflected intense discussions on the future path of inflation, with uncertainty about price movements rising significantly. Some members continued to worry about the inflation outlook, arguing that tariffs could disrupt supply chains, weigh on productivity, and set off a vicious cycle by boosting medium- and long-term inflation expectations. Another group of members took a relatively optimistic stance, noting that a trade deal and proactive adjustments to supply chains could cushion the shock. The meeting notes specifically mentioned that "participants reported a series of assessments from business liaisons regarding the extent to which tariff-related costs are passed on to consumers". In short, views are divergent but inconclusive.