After the non-farm payroll announcement, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September fell to about 80%
2025-07-03 13:10:13
According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 6.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 24%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 71%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 5%. Before the non-farm announcement, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 76.7, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 23.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 4.9%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 21.8%. (Jin Ten)
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