Analysts: 10-year Treasury yields are unlikely to fall below 4%.
2025-06-25 16:01:30
Daniel von Ahlen and Adrea Cicione of TS Lombard write that investors holding the extra yield required for longer-dated Treasuries, known as the term premium, has not changed much recently. This stability suggests that the 10-year Treasury yield is unlikely to fall below 4% because "without a substantial compression in the risk premium, the scope for yields to fall further is limited." They say the Fed is unlikely to lower interest rates below 3% in the next easing cycle, which will further support high yields.
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