Analysts at Bloomberg Economics, including Ziad Daoud, said in a note that rising geopolitical risks are intertwined with a possible escalation of tariffs in the coming weeks as U.S. President Donald Trump's moratorium on so-called reciprocal tariffs is set to expire. The biggest impact on the economy from a protracted conflict in the Middle East could be a spike in oil prices. In an extreme scenario with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude could spike above $130 a barrel. That could push the U.S. CPI closer to 4 percent in the summer, prompting the Federal Reserve and other central banks to delay future rate cuts.
The report said that any sharp increase in oil or gas prices, or trade turmoil caused by further escalation of conflict, would become another constraint on the world economy. (Golden Ten)
Analysts: Middle East conflict could raise U.S. summer CPI to 4%
2025-06-22 23:48:08
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