QCP Capital: Multiple reasons have caused the current market volatility to decrease, and the countdown to the resumption of the trade war has entered

QCP Capital said in a statement on its official channel that on macro events, the Federal Reserve maintained its base rate unchanged as widely expected by the market. However, the policy committee maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing that short-term inflation expectations remain high and listing tariffs as a key upside risk. Officials reiterated their preference for a wait-and-see strategy, pending further clarity on the path of inflation. Market sensitivity to geopolitical headlines continued to decline, including continued Israeli-Iranian tensions. The countdown to the trade war has begun. As the July 9 deadline for the suspension of European Union tariffs approached, the United States reached only one agreement among nearly 195 potential trading partners. Negotiations have stalled, news leaks have become a refrain, and the market reaction to the news of gradual tariffs has become increasingly dull. The following time points are still crucial: July 14: The European Union plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States August 12: The end of the 90-day tariff truce between China and the United States August 31: The expiration of the long-term tariff exemption for Chinese imports These points may trigger periodic downward fluctuations in risk assets. However, the benchmark scenario of QCP is still optimistic: given the intersection of interests and demands of both sides, the Sino-US trade negotiations are more likely to reach a stable conclusion, which will provide support for the continued rise of risk assets. The current market risk reversal indicator remains negative (put options are premium to call options), reflecting the cautious layout of the market and the expectation of a short-term correction.