CICC: Gold short-term overdraft, but the interest rate cut transaction has not ended

On April 29th, under the traditional pricing framework, gold has the triple attributes of currency, commodity and finance, corresponding to currency, anti-inflation and safe-haven value, so it usually moves in the opposite direction of the US dollar and US bond interest rates. But recently this pricing law has "failed", and gold, interest rates and the US dollar have risen together. After the three rise together, the frequency of subsequent declines in one month is more than half, and the previous gains are often reversed within two months. Looking forward, we believe that gold is short-term overdrawn, but the interest rate cut transaction is not over, and the center is between $2,400 and $2,500/ounce; long-term logic can be used as a basis for matching when the opportunity cost is low, including local demand for de-dollarization. Whether it is experiencing the third global monetary system anchor will have a significant impact on the pricing of assets, including gold.