Analysis: Bitcoin Shows Resilience Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Caution Remains

QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto investment institution, said in a post that Bitcoin has shown resilience in the face of geopolitical tensions, rebounding from a weekly low of $102,800 triggered by the Iran-Israel conflict to above $107,000, narrowing the decline to 3% from 8% in the same event in April 2024. The continued increase in institutional holdings has become a key support factor - Metaplanet and MicroStrategy are buying dips, spot ETFs have a net inflow for seven consecutive weeks, and the psychological barrier of $100,000 has not been effectively broken.
More broadly, markets have been unusually calm in the face of rising geopolitical risks. Bitcoin's front-end implied volatility remains below 40, while the Volatility Index (VIX) hovers around 20. Given the current context, both levels are at historic lows. US Treasuries and some Asian government bonds have recorded inflows, suggesting that the market has not yet fully shifted to safe-haven mode. However, caution remains. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or direct US military intervention could trigger a spike in oil prices and turmoil in risky assets. Ironically, some believe that these risks themselves could be structurally positive for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is currently trading at less than 6% below its all-time high, and recent price movements have further reinforced the idea that bitcoin adoption is being driven by macro dislocations, rising sovereign debt burdens, and geopolitical vulnerabilities.