According to the latest data from Polymarket, the probability of Iran blocking or closing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, rose to 45% on June 14.
That probability was almost double the 24 percent on June 11, the data showed, just hours after Israel finally made good on its long-standing threat to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.
Blocking the Strait of Hormuz could send Brent crude prices soaring above $120.
The probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has skyrocketed to 47%.
2025-06-14 19:52:29
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